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France is on track to become, once again, the most populous nation in western Europe, overtaking Germany and outdistancing Britain.
According to demographic calculations announced yesterday by the French government, a booming birth rate and high longevity should push the population of France to 75 million by the year 2050.
On present trends, the British population will remain close to its existing figure of 60 million. The German population is expected to fall from 82 million to 70 million and Italy - which has a very low birth rate - from 57 million to 43 million.
If confirmed in the coming years, those demographic trends will have a profound impact on European politics. From the Middle Ages to the early 19th century, France was the most populous country in western Europe. It was overtaken by the future Germany in the mid 19th century and matched by Britain by the early 1900s.
Population and birth rate have been a French national obsession ever since.
Many French people plan to vote "no" in the referendum on the proposed EU constitution in two weeks because they fear French influence will be swamped in the new Europe of 25 or more nations. But the figures announced yesterday suggest that France may progressively become the EU's dominant force.
The birth rate in France is about 1.85 children for every woman of child-bearing age, compared to 1.79 in the UK and considerably less in Germany (1.3), Italy (1.23) and Spain (1.1). The birth rates in eastern Europe are also low. The only country in the EU to match, and better, the French figure is Ireland.
Since the expectation of life in France has also reached new record levels and immigration is higher than expected, the French ministry of transport and planning said yesterday that it had revised upwards its projections for the country's population by mid-century.
The present population of France, including overseas territories, is 60 million, about the same as in Britain. The official forecast, based on the 1994 census, is that the French population will rise to 64 million by 2050. The transport and planning ministry said yesterday that this projection was based on the lowest likely trajectory of births and population growth.
Figures collected since then suggest that France is on the highest possible trajectory, which, if maintained, would take the population to 75 million by 2050.
Three-quarters of the population growth should be attributed to the high birth rate and increased longevity, the ministry said. Only one-quarter could be explained by immigration.
France refused to break down its statistics by race or background but demographers have calculated that, contrary to expectations, the baby boom is spread more or less evenly across all groups.
Two children or more are the norm for French couples. France spends more than any other EU country - 4.5 per cent of GDP - on policies that promote child care and assist families.
Compared to England, France is a relatively empty place. The population of England, about 50 million, is only 10 million fewer than France but is squashed into a quarter of the land space.
A growing population usually also means an expanding economy. But with 10 per cent unemployment and sluggish growth, France has yet to see that benefit.
- reprinted from the Independent