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The new year's child care freeze: A primer

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Unpacking a story that is spinning wildly out of control
Author: 
Haspel, E.
Format: 
Article
Publication Date: 
1 Jan 2026
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Excerpts

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How did this all start?

This story exploded over the past week thanks to a viral video by conservative YouTube personality Nick Shirley. Shirley claimed that a handful of child care centers, primarily run by people of Somali heritage, were running fraudulent operations with no kids inside. It may not shock you to hear that these assertions are exceptionally shaky and disputed, relying on such evidence as ‘the child care center refused entry to a group of masked strangers demanding to see the children inside.’ But the damage was done: the video has been viewed over 100 million times, and was amplified by powerful figures like Elon Musk and Vice President J.D. Vance.

What Shirley and co. seem to be doing is trying to make new hay out an old story. There were allegations of substantial child care fraud in Minnesota back in 2019. A report that year from the state’s Office of the Legislative Auditor found that fraud was nowhere near the epidemic levels being claimed, but that there were significant weaknesses in the state’s anti-fraud controls. That mini-scandal helped lead to changes in leadership at state agencies, new legislation to tighten anti-fraud measures around child care subsidy, and increased oversight from the federal Administration for Children and Families including an audit launched in 2023 under the Biden Administration. In short — much like the Feeding Our Families food assistance fraud ring which began to be broken up years ago and has already led to dozens to criminal charges — this is being dredged up and repackaged in service of political aims.

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What are the potential consequences?

In a word: delays. Delays in drawing down funds are going to lead to delays in states getting payments out the door (something many states already struggle with) which are going to lead to child care programs unable to make payroll or pay rent, which are going to lead to programs limiting or even ending operations. This isn’t hypothetical: during the pandemic, many states struggled to get aid out the door to child care providers, and providers and families suffered as a result. We also saw what can happen when, in 2023, Illinois struggled with major payment delays.

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What can be done?

In case this post feels too dispassionate, let me be clear: I’m furious. We’re watching one of the most objectively corrupt Administrations in American history use a YouTuber’s crappy excuse for an exposé as part of a larger effort to demonize a particular immigrant group — and now they are going to punish millions of American families across the country who have done nothing wrong but are collateral damage in an attempt to deflect from failed, unpopular policies.

However.

I don’t think the way I can best serve you all — and kids and families and child care providers across the country — is by stamping my foot. I am grateful for the foot-stampers out there who are already mounting a vigorous rapid-response campaign. I want you to understand what is happening, why it is happening, and what it means, so that you can spread the word.

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Fraud is unacceptable. We should say that, too. In fact, the best way to minimize child care fraud is to have a simple, robustly funded child care system with well-funded state capacity to provide support and oversight to providers, and strong guardrails against profiteering. Instead, we have a byzantine system of welfare and for-profit mechanisms smashed together, combined with hollowed-out state capacity — and then we pretend to be shocked when the broken thing breaks.

But right now, this isn’t really a story about fraud. Right now, this is a story about millions of American households — both those that rely directly on child care aid and those that don’t — that are about to take yet another blow to their well-being. The Administration’s actions here are needless, callous, and destructive: they should to be pressured to release all child care funds ASAP.

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